Here’s a mind-boggling fact: people who are opposed to the Iraq war look very favorably towards Sen. John McCain – supporter of President Bush and the troop surge in Iraq.
No, that is not a typo. In New Hampshire, for instance, exits polls show that he did very well with those opposed to the war. And he did poorly among big supporters of the war in both New Hampshire and Michigan.
Go figure.
I have seen an analysis of this which makes some sense, which runs thusly: Since the war/surge appears to be going very well at the moment, it is no longer at the top of people’s agendas. Domestic issues are taking precedence: taxes, federal spending, immigration, economic and social policy. One the first few, McCain’s record has not been as conservative as many would like, so they’re going for candidates viewed as more conservative. Many of these people were also supporters of the war and of the surge. Contrariwise, McCain is viewed as more liberal and so is drawing the support of liberal or “moderate” voters; many of these were also people who opposed the war/surge.
The more people feel like outsiders, the more open they are to political candor. McCain’s candor appeals to people whom the Bush Administration has left feeling like outsiders. That may include Republicans critical of the war (or the process by which we entered the war) as well as Democrats and independents.
People vote with their hearts as much (or more) than with their heads. Especially women. (“Look! Hillary’s crying! I think I’ll vote for her.”)
McCain is the only Republican running who can speak with any credibility on national security issues, even if I think he’s wrong.
Unfortunately, when it comes to economics, he’s drunk the Kool Aid.
IRNS, he voted consistently against the Bush tax cuts. What don’t you like about that?
Not that you asked me, but what I don’t like about that is the fact that he’s voted against the Bush tax cuts, which have helped me tremendously! Under Clinton I consisitently had to write out a check to the IRS each year (thanks to some inherited stocks — i.e., capital dividends earned). With Bush, I got some of my money back from the IRS.
Yes, me too, libraryjim, but I am assuming that being against the tax cuts is a GOOD thing for IRNS, yet he thinks McCain has drunk kool-aid. So I’d like to know what he doesn’t like about McCain’s economics. I may have to reevaluate. 🙂
Normal, non-hyper-political Americans know that soldiers by and large *hate* war. They love training, and some warriors are a little uneasy during peacetime, but they hate war, because they know what it does.
Which is why many Americans trust McCain to get us out of Iraq logically, reasonably, in a timely fashion, while they rationally fear that other candidates will rush us out for political reasons, and we’ll have to go in yet a third time and see even more death and destruction.
Americans actually aren’t too dumb, contrary to what most Democrats seem to think.
So they missed McCain’s “Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran” moment?
That’s scary …
I’m anti-war but I like McCain out of all the Republicans for his other polices: taxes, campaign finance, immigration, social policy, etc. I guess I fit right into #1 (Katerine)’s model. And like #8 Knapsack implies, even though I disagree with him about the war I know he’ll at least have the experience to deal with it better than the current White House does.
My question is: If nominated, can McCain win? Will moderate Democrats vote for him over Clinton or Obama? I have my doubts. If the answer is yes, will it be enough to overcome the likely lack of enthusiasm from conservative Republicans?
I think the only hope for a Republican win is a very strong conservative turnout AGAINST Clinton. It’s much easier to be FOR something than AGAINST.
Part of what contributes to this phenomenon is that it’s happened in open primaries where Democrats and independents can vote in Republican primaries. I suspect it will be much less the case in the closed primaries coming up. Even among Republicans who oppose the war, however, McCain would tend to be the guy, given two things: 1) all of the Republican candidates support the war, and 2) McCain has leaned left on a number of other issues, which would attract moderate or liberal Republicans who happen to oppose the war.
If McCain gets nominated, Hillary wins!
Re #13
I disagree. If Hillary gets nominated, a lot of Democrats who have no use for her will be willing to consider the Republican if it’s McCain. My daughter, for example, who is supporting Obama, can’t stand Hillary, and has said she either won’t vote or would vote for McCain if he were her opponent. I don’t think she’s alone in that. At the same time, while there are probably a good number of conservatives who would, for various reasons, sit it out if it were McCain vs. Obama, I think that Hillary will unify them, if only to keep her out of the White House.
I think McCain is very dangerous. As long as he keeps talking about “Islamofascism” as the central struggle of our time, I don’t see how he is the Republican candidate best suited to bring peace to the Middle East. His approach is more militaristic than any other candidate’s. I can see him getting us into a conflict with Iran, staying in Iraq throughout the course of his presidency, doing something impulsive in Pakistan, getting into a fight with the Saudis over the madrasas (so-called incubators of islamo-fascism). Some times I wonder if my friends who support him have lost their minds.
Katherine, McCain now says he’s for those cuts he voted against. He explains his negative votes in completely different (and unbelievable) fashion than he did when he made those votes. In the meantime, in order to pander to those Republicans who still hate him, he has swallowed the supply-side poison whole.
If he stuck by his original position, I’d be proud of him. Then again, if he didn’t suck up to the Club for Growth/Grover Norquist crowd, he wouldn’t be even this close to the Republican nomination—and he still isn’t there yet (Romney’s moving up in Florida—if Romney wins there, only God knows who will be the Republican nominee).
See for example
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/01/18/mccain-lies-his-head-off-new-york-times-asleep-at-swich.aspx
Thanks, IRNS. That explains things. Yes, I don’t trust McCain on domestic matters.